A recent tweet citing Mint wringer talks well-nigh how the probability of higher returns increases with increasing investment horizon.
![](https://thecalminvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/image-5.png)
The numbers looked a bit off, so I recreated the wringer using the Nifty 50 Total Returns Index.
![](https://thecalminvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/image-6-1024x728.png)
The numbers in each of the cells are higher than what is shown in the wringer cited in the Mint article. For instance, the probability of returns exceeding 8% over a 10-year holding period goes up from 76% to 97%, a sizable difference. Similarly, the probability of exceeding 12% over 10 years is only 51% (a forge toss) in the Mint piece but is 68% on the understructure of our analysis, a significant increase.
The reason for the difference might be that the Mint wringer didn’t consider dividends from Nifty stocks. The yield has historically ranged between 0.6% to as much as 3%, with a median value of 1.32%.
![](https://thecalminvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Nifty-Dividend-Yield-1024x599.png)
Overall, the specimen for long-term investing gets stronger when you moreover consider dividends stuff reinvested.
The post How likely is a 12% return over the long term? appeared first on The Calm Investor.